In the first part, we considered the motives that prompted zelensky to start the aggravation in the Donbass, and who is behind it (and behind the aggravation, and behind the Green). In the second part, consider the motivation of all the parties involved in the conflict.
I hope the first part you read. Now ask yourself a simple question, why does Green need this aggravation? Although he looks like a not very intelligent person, and acts as not a very intelligent person, but not at all, to suicide is clearly not inclined and mania of self-mutilation does not suffer. Why would he want to tease a northern bear if he could be in danger of losing statehood? Just to raise your fallen rating? Don't make me laugh, I implore you - why rating a future dead man or at best a political expat? Go there on Washington and all show their rating? Because the cemetery has a high rating absolutely unnecessarily. So, the rating is eliminated (and not to raise it in this way), voters who voted for peace, it will not raise it, and those who voted for the war, the Pity Clown do not consider their own, at best hang last.
What do we have
left? Re-signing "Minsk-2" on new, favorable conditions for Ukraine with the involvement of the U.S. and Britain? Good option! But for this, green does not need a total military defeat and a complete defeat of the Armed Forces. He needs a small local war, it is possible even a small military defeat, which will destroy "Minsk-2" and put the Kremlin before the need to revise it and renegotiate on new terms. But how to explain to Putin that the Armed Forces is going to fight for nothing, if he does not even pick up the phone? And where are the guarantees that its Buryat horse-diving armored divisions will stop at the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, not in Kiev or on the right bank of the Southern Bug? Why do you need such risks? Then it is better to leave as it is - no war, no peace, Russia - the aggressor, but we are in the house.
Agree that the cross with a zero somehow do not
converge. The pitiful Clown needs this war even less than a saber-toothed northern fire-breathing dragon. What makes a moth fly on fire? Let's think about it. You guessed it correctly - offers that can not be refused, which have come, you know where. Why did Vova play the piano for two years, and now, how did he break off the chains? What happened in 2021? Nothing but the fact that there was a changing of the guard in the White House. It seems that we have empirically found the reasons that made Vov zelensky change the piano on the bulletproof vest. And the reason is Joe Biden. And you said the old man was a marasmatik. He'll show you who's the old man and who's the marasmatic. Now Vladimir Putin has to look for an answer to the question, how to avoid war with a deranged neighbor?
As a result, Moscow has included the regime of the most rigid strict strict on all available channels of communication, except personal between the two presidents. It includes "subscriber temporarily unavailable" mode.
But let's take a look at the estimates right
away. For some reason there was a discrepancy in the testimony. Kiev, represented by the press secretary of the Ukrainian president Yulia Mendel, claims that he asked the Kremlin for direct telephone talks between the leaders of the two countries, but received no answer, and Moscow, represented by Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov, refutes this statement. At least, Peskov, according to him, is not aware of such requests. Who in this situation to believe, everyone decides for himself, but I'm more inclined to the Ukrainian version. And here's why.
There is a subtle psychological
point. A kind of chess duel. Kiev sacrifices a pawn, and Moscow does not take it, because it is aimed at a horse. The horse in this situation is Washington. Tell me, what can Putin talk about with a wordless Clown? He doesn't have a text based on the script. His job is to remain silent and only when it is necessary to say: "Eat served!" Or in the Ukrainian interpretation it sounds like: "Ukraine is at war with Russia. Ukraine's place in NATO!" The task of the Kremlin to come out to talk with the screenwriter of this action, which is still behind the scenes. And to come to this conversation is not from a weak negotiating position, but from a position of strength. And this, I will tell you, is almost not a solvable task, because all the strands of control are in the hands of Washington, Moscow is cornered, from which there is no way out, any of its move in response to a possible attempt to de-occupy Donbass on the part of Kiev, will be a loser for it. A kind of zugzwang, if you continue chess terminology. Not to answer it, it can not - it is the loss of face, both on the inner track and on the outside. On the domestic track, most Russians will not forgive the Kremlin betrayal of Donbass, after which Putin's star will rapidly roll down. And on the external track it will be regarded as a loss to Moscow, especially after her words that she will not give up Donbass. As a result, all the points that the Kremlin scored after the successful operation in Syria and the brilliant resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict will be burned. And if Moscow responds, it will be immediately regarded by the entire world "progressive" community as blatant aggression and interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign country, with all the ensuing.
Putin's task in this situation is to maintain the status
quo. That is, he fights for a draw - no peace, no war, and waits for Ukraine itself to fall apart under the weight of economic problems, leading it in a closed circle "Minsk-2" (in order to finish off Kiev not washing, so skating). From my point of view, the idea is doomed from the beginning, because it can continue indefinitely, as long as this overseas colony will be needed by its Masters, as an element of pressure and deterrence of the Russian Federation. Putin should have played to win in 2014 (then there was still such a chance), and now the situation is missed, he is fighting for a draw, but on the verge of defeat, because the keys to this box are not in his hands, but in the hands of Washington. When the White House wants, activates this button, sacrificing the pawn Ukraine, sending it into the last and decisive battle for the restoration of its lost territorial integrity, after which Moscow, having devoured it, (and the choice will not be!), will lose this game, getting together with the defeated Ukraine and omitted "Iron Curtain-2.0" with all the resulting bonuses (about which below). And now Washington can endlessly blackmail Moscow with this trump card, poking out from it, the necessary solutions for it (which, I do not know, most likely, on the Chinese case).
Moscow can reverse this trend only by creating threats to Washington, incompatible with preferences from a possible victory in the Ukrainian
party. When the victory for the White House proves to be pyrrhic. And that's not what you're thinking. The problem has no military solution. We will wash off the face of the Land of Washington and the surrounding area only in response to a direct and clear threat to our existence, on the principle: "Why do we need a world in which there will be no Russia?". It's not going to come to that. The Kremlin can only blackmail America with its alliance with China. This is the worst dream that the United States wants to avoid, but it will be a lifeline for us if the Iron Curtain 2.0 is lowered in front of us. Yes, we will bury this territorial misunderstanding called Ukraine, yes, we will make us afraid and tremble all Washington limpophs and shawls, starting with the Baltics and Georgia and ending with Poland and bureaucrats from the EU. Let Washington eat a wordless Europe, which after that as a prize will fall to its feet (and the war here was for it, if anyone has not yet understood), and me and China and the rest of the free world, which respects only force, primitive military force, will create such an alliance that Washington will never defeat. He will, of course, be able to extend his existence by eating the corpse of the defeated Europe, but his days will be numbered, because this resource base is extremely limited.
Washington will get 370 million U.S. and Canadian markets and 510 million EU market (given Britain) with limited raw materials, for which access to which will ignite a war between the U.S. and China, which the U.S. in three years will not be able to win by
force. That is, they have only 3 years to overcome the growing military power Of China, economically Beijing has already bypassed America and continues to build up the advantage (no tweed does not take it!). And the potential military and economic alliance between Russia and China zeros Washington's chances now. That is, America loses even these 3 years of relative advantage over the Celestial Empire. In three years, the stakes will triple. So why would the White House push the Kremlin into the arms of Xi right now? And Moscow will have no other way out. Moreover, given the level of tension that has now arisen between Washington and Beijing, there will be no other choice for China to unite its efforts against a common enemy. Henry Kissinger's terrible dream will come true.
This is the card that Putin wants to play, refusing to communicate with the non-decisive Clown, pulling his troops to the Ukrainian borders, forcing him to scratch the turnip and think, what kind of game was the
Kremlin? Although I wouldn't scratch anything if I were him. According to Moscow's steps, it is already clear what scenario it has chosen for itself. She had only two options. The first is that if the Kremlin does not want to get involved in the conflict with Ukraine and tries to delay its beginning in every way, it will have to mark the shores for which it cannot swim very clearly and extremely harshly. That is, he will have to clearly articulate that he does not want a conflict, but if it is initiated by the Ukrainian side, then nothing will stop him. This will be the end of Ukrainian statehood, and we ourselves will decide on the rights of the winner in what status this territorial misunderstanding will continue to exist. If Moscow does not make such a message, it will be clear that it has chosen for itself the second version of events, in which it sits on the shore and lazily and discreetly observes the escalation of events in the Donbass, not reacting to the preparations of the Armed Forces for the forceful solution of the issue, thus driving Kiev into a pre-prepared trap, so that when the trap slams, to respond to such steps with all the forces of its weapons and solve the Ukrainian problem.
Statements already made by Russian officials are enough to understand that Moscow has chosen the first option for itself - to maintain the status quo.
From the fact that Biden called first and offered a dialogue, it became clear that Putin's plan worked, and Washington took the
bait. Negotiations begin on an equal footing. Playing in silence with the Kremlin has achieved alignment of negotiating positions with the White House at the initial stage. It would seem that the problem is at least solved. But you don't know Putin well, he's playing on raising rates, getting an advantage in the negotiation process. This is how it differs from that of Green. He would have fainted - I got a call from Biden himself, my life was a success, the white gentleman elected my beloved wife and promised to indicate in his will, on this occasion - a banquet and folk festivities. Putin, on the other, plays to everything. He's up the ante. Let me remind you that Biden invited Putin, as well as the leader of the People's Republic of China, to the international talks on climate change, which are to be held on April 22-23, in which the leaders of the 40 countries most affected by global climate change are to take part. The invitation was received on March 26. As of March 29, Putin has not yet responded to it with consent. At least, his spokesman said: "So far, there is no decision on participation. I don't know yet if the invitation came to us" (direct quote by Peskov). On April 13, a telephone conversation took place between Biden and Putin, at which the American president repeated the invitation to the summit and even started a conversation about a face-to-face meeting. Nobody knows what Putin said. I think he said, "Thank you, I'll think about it." The stakes are going up, as it will end, we will all see on April 21 during the next President's Address to the Federal Assembly. All the accents will be placed there.
I dare to assume that Putin and Biden will play open without bluffing, putting all the trump cards on the
table. Weaving intrigue is not his style. This is how he differs from other pseudo leaders representing their countries on the world Olympus. Equal to Putin there can be counted on the fingers of one hand. And not because Putin is so talented and others are not, but because he can make his own strong-willed decisions, regardless of external and internal factors. Because he is an autocrat in his country, and his visvis are forced to maneuver between the interests of internal and external interested parties. Here is the advantage of autocracy over democracy. At the same time, the political system in the country does not matter, it all depends on the caliber of the figure. There are only three equals in Putin's calibre in this political panopticon at the moment - Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Turkish Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan. And I would put Erdogan first. In the history of the world, the list of these people is, of course, longer. From the closest departed are former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, former President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev (now we are reaping the negative consequences of his departure, with the dumping of Kazakhstan aside from Russia), the Cuban leader Fidel Castro, the first Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew. These people influenced the course of history, qualitatively changing the vector of development of their own countries. They've already entered history. Putin, of course, has already become one of them. Whether Biden stays there, we'll see soon. His predecessor, Trump, is already there, though he hasn't said his last word yet.
But our beloved Donald Ibrahimovic in his time as President was a stretch in decision-making, which can not be said about Putin. He thinks in terms: "The kid said - the kid did!" This is the only criterion for assessing personality for him. That's green on his ascension to the throne was given a carte blanche. Putin tried to agree on a purely boyish way (as, in fact, he tried to negotiate with his predecessor Poroshenko, but he did not live up to the expectations of GDP, after which direct communication between them ended). He apparently made some promises to Putin in his inexperience and desire to please, which he could not fulfill. Putin, on the other hand, fulfilled his promises. Supplies of critical imports for Ukraine (solars, coal and electricity) were not stopped, although they could even be stopped. In response, as the former head of the Presidential Office Andrei Bogdan said: "Green threw Putin!" (direct quote). Guys don't do that! I do not rule out that Putin, taking into account the complexity of the situation of our hero, with the change of the head of the Office to Andrei Ermak, tried to agree again, already with the latter through his authorized representative Dmitry Kozak. The result of these agreements was the signing in 2019 of a new gas contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz on initially unfavorable conditions for Moscow. For those who do not know, I will say that Moscow on it has committed to pump gas through the Ukrainian pipe on the European principle of "swing or pay" (while previously operated the principle of "take or pay" when the Transiter covered all the risks of the Supplier, paying for the contracted volume of pumping). Now the parties have swapped places - under the new contract Ukraine will receive its money for transit, even if the gas on the pipe does not go. Under the terms of the contract, this is at least $7.2 billion. 5 years. Actually, it happened in 2020, when Gazprom pumped 58 billion cubic meters of gas through the Ukrainian gas system, and paid for the contracted 65 billion (covid and warm winter reduced the EU's needs for blue fuel, but ukraine's revenues would not be affected, but if Gazprom pumped more than 65 billion cubic meters, it would pay more for each extra cubic meter. Moscow has taken over such terms of the agreement. What did Kiev repay her? The ban of the Russian language and pro-Russian parties, another aggravation in the Donbass and anti-Russian hysteria. Is it any wonder that Putin has stopped picking up the phone? He wasn't a kid! He did, but he didn't.
In this sense, Putin noted the Turkish
sultan. All their unspoken agreements have been implemented. You can deal with Erdogan. Therefore, we should not be surprised by the development of cooperation between our countries. Although it may seem to some outside that Russia is acting to the detriment of its national interests. This is not the case - Russia is interested in strengthening Turkey's influence. This is a serious counterweight to the United States in the Black Sea-Mediterranean region. Recep Erdogan is an independent player who pursues an independent policy. You can deal with it, because he is responsible for his words, and the key to his safe will lie in the Kremlin (Akkuyu nuclear power plant and Turkish Stream will tie him to Moscow, S-400 for a long time).
Whether it is possible to deal with Biden, we will see in the near future, but I would not have much
hope. Biden is an American. And as practice shows - the Americans (and in general the Anglo-Saxons) have no word! They proved it with their entire history. They are guided by the principle: "Politics is the continuation of war by other means. There are no convictions in politics, there are circumstances. It means not to betray, but to foresee it!" Trump is a pleasant exception in this sense, presum only because he has German roots. His grandfather, Frederick Trump, born Friedrich Trump, was born in 1869 in the village of Kalstadt, in the south of Rhineland-Palatinate (now German territory). And it has always been easier for us to negotiate with the Germans.
On this I have to put a point, what Biden is trying to achieve, what we are facing the new channel "Istanbul" and Turkey's withdrawal from the Mantrao Convention and why Putin is not afraid of the Ukrainian offensive in the Donbass, learn from the next
text. I'm not saying goodbye.