TSARGRAD PROGRAMS07:01

"THE CASE SMELLS LIKE KEROSENE": IS THE U.S. READY TO TAKE A STEP BACK?

What was the main reason that U.S. President Joe Biden decided to call a man who a month ago recognized as a "murderer", we do not know. Perhaps he was prompted to this step by the words of Sergei Ryabkov,who said on April 13:

The United States is our enemy, doing everything to undermine Russia's position in the international arena, we do not see any other elements in their approach to us. The conclusions are such.

Perhaps it is also that Washington understood that the prospect of losing the Kiev colony took too clear outlines. But let's not speculate on the reasons, the main thing is the fact: Biden called to discuss bilateral relations with the Russian leader and offer to meet. The venue where the meeting will take place is still being discussed. Several European countries offered their territory at once.

Remarkably, Biden wants to hold the meeting in the format of the summit, which means that it is planned not just some discussion. Some important agreements and deals are likely to be concluded.

The response to sanctions will be tough

After this conversation Putin and Biden to the assistant to the Russian President Yuri Ushakov invited the American ambassador John Sullivan. The diplomat was made to understand that our country will give a tough answer if the Americans want to take some drastic steps and impose sanctions before this meeting at the level of heads of state.

IS IT POSSIBLE TO SAY THAT THE RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES ARE CHANGING?

Olesya Loseva: What can be our answer? And is there any chance that they will actually impose some sanctions on Nord Stream 2 now?

Gevorg Mirzayan,an assistant professor of political science at the Financial University under the Russian government, asked the host to answer this question.

Gevorg Mirzayan: We didn't care about it: the U.S. imposed sanctions on sanctions - for Nord Stream, for Ukraine, for the fact that one of the U.S. senators did not get enough sleep, and Russia did not react to them from the word "no." Well, they expressed outrage, and that was it.

And now, after the American president crossed all the "red lines" with his famous statement, Russia's position has tightened. We have made it clear that if you, Mr. Biden, want to talk to us, let's have an adult dialogue. And adult conversation does not imply that you will break us with sanctions with one hand, and the other - invite us to the negotiating table.

But it does not happen, then it is not negotiations at all, but a certain event, held for a tick - sat, discussed positions and dispersed. We're not interested. And now Russia has said that it will give a tough answer, without specifying what it will be (however, we know about part of the answer - it is the expulsion of 10 American diplomats - Ed.). And that's good, let the Americans now wonder exactly how we will answer them - just give up the negotiations or add something else from above?

In any case, Moscow has made it clear that it is now taking a tough position on Donbass, with which it is not going to retreat. And the very fact of negotiations does not inspire us very much, and we will not weaken our positions. And in case of what - do not be dissed.

The rapid run of events - what next?

"But look at how quickly events began to develop. A serious aggravation began in the Donbass, then Biden called the President of Ukraine Vladimir Selensky, after which an emergency meeting of Ukraine - NATO. Then we declare that we consider the United States our enemy, not our partner. At this time, the West collectively demands an answer from us as to why we are moving military equipment somewhere in our own territory. And then there's Joe Biden's call to Vladimir Putin. I think there's a whole chain of events.

Addressing political scientist Boris Mezhuev,Olesya Loseva asked: What will be the next link in this chain?

Boris Mezhuev: There will be a summit or there will be no summit. Which I think is important here. When Biden came to power, I assumed we had a very tough year ahead. It was expected that the Americans would try to provoke aggravation in the Donbass, that Kiev will be forced to take some tough steps. And after a possible military conflict with Ukraine, Washington will try to defuse the situation. That is, they assumed that the easing of tension will occur only after real unpleasant events in the Donbass.

But Russia has behaved quite harshly, both diplomatically and militarily, showing that there will be no succumbing to blackmail. Therefore, the White House had to dramatically accelerate the de-escalation process to avoid some dire consequences. Now they are in some confusion and do not really imagine how they will manage this whole situation and what they will agree with Russia.

Therefore, I think we have a good opportunity to put forward our demands, including on Ukraine. We have an opportunity for a good response, including a diplomatic one.

If we talk about what Russia will do after the imposition of sanctions, the first and most obvious is the recognition of the independence of Donbass and the legalization of Russia's possible military presence on the territory on the Abkhaz and South Ossetian principle. I don't think we're going to hesitate to use this diplomatic move.

G.M.: Indeed, the Biden administration would have been swinging longer in time, maybe it would have taken a year. That is - war, then sobering after the war, then negotiations. But a number of events in the world very quickly sobered the American president.

And above all - the activation of China. The Chinese realized that there was nowhere to retreat, behind Beijing, and began to respond very harshly to American provocations. In addition, Iran, which has intensified, including thanks to the Chinese deal. After that, he too went to more serious negotiations with the Americans. Of course, Biden and domestic political problems in the United States are forcing Biden and domestic political problems to avoid unnecessary conflicts.

But I will allow myself to disagree about the recognition of the DNR and LPR. It is impossible to recognize the people's republics before the beginning of the military conflict, because then we will be positioned as an aggressor country, which provoked Ukraine to the beginning of hostilities.

B.M.: I don't argue with that. I'm just talking about russia's hard step, including the start of hostilities. And the steps should be not just rigid, but proportional.

And I want to point out that Biden's main plan has failed. He hoped to put the West and Euro-Atlantic into a single whole to oppose all this against China and Russia. But euro-Atlantic is crumbling right before our eyes. We see that Germany does not want to give up nord-Stream 2, much less economic relations with China. Under Washington, europeans are not ready to lie down. So the U.S. should use tough diplomatic force against them. But then how will Biden be different from previous U.S. President Donald Trump?

That is, now it is quite dangerous for the United States to go to confrontation with Russia. Even the Democrats themselves started talking about it- they say, everything went too far. In this situation, there is a chance that the summit of the two presidents will take place. Of course, sooner or later, but in America they will say that "Biden backed down in front of Putin" that he lost and "turned into a chicken" by strutting in front of the Russian pressure.

"Despite this, the tension is increasing. This is evident from what is happening in Ukraine around Donbass. It seems that Biden has stated for a reason that before 9/11 America intends to withdraw all its armed forces from Afghanistan. Where will these troops be deployed? Some experts, including Ukrainian ones, suggest that Kiev is ready to provide its territories to host American bases. It is possible that this is where the Americans will deploy their troops withdrawn from Afghanistan.

U.S. bases in Ukraine - will they risk or be destroyed?

Military expert Viktor Litovkinjoined the conversation in the studio on Skype. Therefore, the following question the presenter addressed to him already:

- How do you think events in Ukraine will develop after Joe Biden's call to Vladimir Putin and in anticipation of a future summit?

Vladimir Litovkin: I wouldn't give Biden's call too optimistic. It cannot be ruled out that this is such a tactical move, made in order to calm Russia and remove troops from the border with Ukraine.

That Biden called is, of course, a good thing, as is Vladimir Putin's future meeting with him - at the summit they will be able to outline their positions to each other. But at the same time we must not lose our vigilance.

The possibility that American bases may appear in Ukraine seems to me quite probable. But if that happens, we have to tell the Americans that then there will be Russian bases in Cuba, or maybe in Venezuela or Nicaragua. To remind them of 1961. The Americans need to be talked to hard. They do not give up their interests.

- What will the summit of Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden give if it takes place? What agreements can be reached?

V.L.: It is possible that there will be talks on strategic stability, on medium- and short-range missiles, on nuclear weapons and tactical. All of these issues must be faced by two leaders. That's a good thing. Negotiations may also take place on ballistic intercontinental missiles, the number of which is already clearly excessive.

There are a lot of important and interesting topics that can be discussed at the summit. But the most important thing is for the two leaders to look each other in the face and that these important negotiations give a good result.

G.M.: I don't agree with one point. First, I believe that there will be no American bases in Ukraine, because it is the same as giving Kiev a MAP in NATO. Americans understand that they cannot cross this red line. But they will continue to inspire Ukraine with promises that someday everything will be done to finally tie ukrainians to the American chariot, so that they continue to drag the United States along the rut of history.

- How likely is direct military squabbling between Russia and Ukraine?

G.M.: They tried to do this as long as they had confidence that Russia would save, that they would not give a harsh answer, that they would not protect the republics of Donbass from genocide.

If we talk about the future negotiations between Putin and Biden, I very much hope that the topic of strategic deterrence will not become their main goal. It is hoped that the parties will discuss more pressing issues - Ukraine, Iran, Afghanistan and so on.

The case smells like kerosene

"Many people in America are now saying that you shouldn't be so tough with Russia. Here is an analyst of the American company Wikistrat Greg Lowsen in an article for The National Interest magazine wrote the following: "Washington is facing a grandiose strategic failure in case of direct confrontation with Moscow over the situation in the southeast of Ukraine."

G.M.: There was a more important point in this article when Mr. Lowsen explains that if we hold back Russia, if we stand against it, then on issues that are of existential interest to Americans, where the security and independence of U.S. sovereignty are really at stake.

Ukraine is not such an issue. In my opinion, this is some not quite understandable gamble for the United States. And for Russia - just the opposite, Ukraine - is a territory of existential interest. Therefore, we will defend ourselves there, and the Americans are there only for some foreign policy goals.

BM: By the way, a number of publications have appeared on the same topic. For example, Colonel Douglas McGregorwrote about it in The American Conservative. There was another performance by congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard on Fox News.

That is, a number of American experts cautiously say that "the case smells of kerosene." There is a version that such a party of relative realism is represented by the National Security Council and Joe Biden's adviser Jake Sullivan. Let's hope it slightly diminishes the chances of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken,who is behind the slackening of the situation.

-While Ukraine looks at the West and does everything to pay attention to it, Russia says that we do not need the West, we will go our own way. I suggest you listen to what The founder of tsargrad TV channel Konstantin Malofeev said about this:

We are not part of Western civilization. We are an independent Russian civilization, if you like, the civilization of the North, we are not the East, nor the West, nor the South. We are the only original civilization in our spirit. We must understand that we are on our own and we must live apart from them. This is the only way we can weather that storm - cultural, economic, political, God forbid, military, that can happen to this global Western world. We see what is happening in the citadel of Western values - in the United States. It's not going to stop. Our task is to distance ourselves from it, to stop yaking with them, to stop respecting what they are investing us in, and to move forward on our own.

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