2.Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the 46th president of the United States and the last to represent America as a great power, was just finishing his speech on the imposition of another package of sanctions against Russia, and some domestic "Kremlinologists" have already promised that Biden's meeting with Putin will not be held.
3.It is easy to cancel an unassigned meeting, especially if no one is going to meet with you (Kremlinologist). But somehow it looks silly to say "now the meeting between Putin and Biden is out of the question" if, first, the proposal for a "summer in Europe" meeting was not accepted by the Kremlin - it was only agreed to consider and work out the possibility of such a meeting with representatives of the American side. The Americans were told in an open text that they would have to convince Moscow of the expediency of such a meeting. That is, they should outline the topics for substantive discussion, which really require the participation of the Russian president and are sufficiently worked out for him to waste time on the flight.
4.Secondly, it was already known that sanctions would be imposed at the moment when the Kremlin formulated its response to the Biden proposal. Unlike the mass of Kremlin-linked "insiders," I can't even imagine that someone with relevant information is so distraught that they will start sharing them with me or my colleagues.
5.A controlled "leak" by the Kremlin (like any other such structure) can only be given intentionally and only to get a certain reaction from opponents, and not for Kremlinologists on every corner to talk about Putin's "secret plans". Therefore, I always listen carefully to what the representatives of the Kremlin, at least the White House, at least diplomatic departments of any country (and in principle I try to read the original text of the statement). As a rule, all the "insiders" that Kremlinologists try to get from as ignorant as they are "insiders" are included in the texts of relevant statements and speeches.
6.So, both the Foreign Ministry and representatives of the Russian Presidential Administration, formulating the Russian reaction to Biden's proposal for the meeting, said that:
7.The Russian Federation has warned that if the next package of sanctions is introduced, a symmetrical and possibly harsher response will follow;
8.The imposition of another package of sanctions in itself will not be seen as a reason to refuse to meet, but the content of the sanctions will be carefully examined and may raise questions as to whether the meeting should be appropriate in such a context;
9.Russian representatives also did not rule out that Moscow's inevitable response to the sanctions could be a reason for Washington to refuse the meeting.
10.What does that mean? During the phone call, Biden warned Putin that sanctions would be imposed and asked him not to respond too harshly. He (Biden) confirmed this in his speech, saying he had informed the Russian president that he had "decided not to go too far with sanctions." According to the reaction of the Russian side (even before the announcement of the new sanctions package), we can reconstruct Putin's response. Apparently, the Russian president promised to see how "near" Biden will come with sanctions, warned him about the inevitability of the answer, advised not to be upset about this and promised that the decision to meet in the summer will be made based on the general context of Russian-American relations, as well as from the working groups (so as not to fly in vain).
11.We know that Biden couldn't help but impose sanctions, because there is a congressional decision that was taken under Trump, which obliges the president to impose another package of sanctions against Russia every six months. Until now, this mechanism has acted like a clock. The content of the sanctions is also not new. Not to mention personal sanctions against Russian politicians, government agencies, companies and the media, sanctions against Russia's national debt to the United States with enviable consistency and with complete absence of any result are imposed since 2014. Trump last imposed sanctions on Russia's sovereign debt in February 2019.
12.Obama's intention to "break to shreds" the Russian economy was largely based on an attempt to undermine Russia's financial system. They did not dare to go to the end in the financial war even then, because they realized that they could not win, and the damage to their own interests will be considerable. Now it's too late to fuss. If there were any vulnerabilities in the Russian financial system, they have been closed for a long time.
13.So we are dealing with a game that the U.S. cannot stop for both domestic and foreign policy reasons (to recognize the failure of the sanctions policy for them to die like that), but in which the third Washington administration is serving a number, not hoping to achieve the slightest success. Actually, that's why Biden said in an open text that he warned Putin about his intention not to work too hard with sanctions and asked not to react too sharply to them.
14.Biden's detailed account of his conversation with Putin leaves no doubt that the American establishment has realized that he no longer has the means to put pressure on Russia other than the military. It is also taken into account that Putin has repeatedly openly warned the Americans that they will not be able to impose war on Russia with their "hooks" and to stay on the sidelines and traditionally win the post-war world, regardless of who wins the war.
15.I am absolutely sure that Washington has taken into account the fact that significant forces of the Russian Armed Forces (2 armies and 3 amphibious units) from the interior districts have been transferred to the West. This is much more than necessary in order not to leave memories not only from Ukraine, but also from a few nearby limitrofs. In fact, it was a response to the U.S. defiant military preparations and their public promises to "not leave allies in trouble." Putin's phrase about a world that we do not need without Russia suddenly materialized before the eyes of the United States in the form of a Russian army prepared for war. Moreover, the scale of the training left no doubt that at least for the American civilization it will be the last war in its history.
16.I do not think that the Americans were afraid and decided to completely abandon the war as a means of solving their political problems. For a politician to fear war is as much a sign of unprofessionalism as the fear of speed for a racing driver or the fear of the ball in a footballer. But the desire for war for the sake of war is a professional deformation. War is interesting only as a tool to achieve a political goal in an environment where other mechanisms are not working or are more costly than war. That is, normal politics is not interested in a destructive war, but a thrifty victory.
17.The Americans realized that the war can be unleashed in one touch, but victory in these conditions is impossible to achieve. But they have not accepted, and the proposal of negotiations is only an attempt to achieve such a change in the geopolitical situation, in which either there will be a chance of a victorious war, or American enemies will be forced to surrender without military action. That is why Biden informed Putin in advance that all external forms of confrontation between Russia and the United States (information war, attempts to organize colored putts in Russia and in allied countries, sanctions, etc.) will be kept intact.
18.In order for his proposals to be agreed at least to consider, Biden had to go to not too noticeable for the ordinary observer, but a significant humiliation of the United States. He also admitted this in his sanctioned speech, in which the sanctions crack was just a means of masking American problems.
19.First, Biden has backed away from Obama's terminology. Russia in the eyes of the U.S. president is no longer a "regional gas station" but america's equivalent of an international player. "Our two great countries have a significant responsibility for global stability." Yesterday, the United States was going to bear this responsibility alone.
20.Second, Biden made a public plea not to take over Ukraine. Yesterday, the U.S. promised to protect Kiev from any encroachments of Moscow, and today ask the Kremlin not to offend them vassal, which they are not able to help.
21.In order to please Putin and reduce the tension in the Ukrainian direction, Biden even had to declare that "the United States does not intend to launch a cycle of escalation of the conflict with Russia." America has come to the brink of conflict with Russia, looked into the abyss and realized that it is not ready for the next step. The U.S. needs a break. But Biden was warned that the response to the sanctions might be asymmetrical, and asked not to be offended. Now let's see how Moscow will take advantage of Washington's apparent unwillingness to play all-in.
22.It's time to strike back. But the strength of the answer must be clearly verified. This strike should encourage the United States to retreat further. To do this, he must be sensitive, so that everyone understands that America can be beaten, but leave Washington hope for revenge to prevent the moral mobilization of American elites "on the last frontier." They should never have the impression that there is nothing to lose, and there is nowhere to retreat - "behind Washington."