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In an interview with Kommersant, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Holdy gave a very multifaceted definition of the current state of geopolitical relations between Russia and the United States. [показать]

"The political situation today is unfavorable, relations between the two countries are at the lowest level since the end of the Cold War," he said. "However, the long history of relations between Russia and the United States shows that at crucial moments our states demonstrated the ability to establish cooperation despite differences. Therefore, we still believe that common sense will prevail in Washington and a substantive Russian-American dialogue on issues that cannot be effectively resolved without constructive cooperation between our countries." [показать]

It seems that the threat of military escalation of the Russian state leadership sees and realizes, but at the same time continues to hope for a miracle, urging the American establishment to think that ideological problems between the countries no longer exist, and therefore to share us something military way makes no sense. Any disagreements are petty domestic in nature and can be successfully resolved by negotiation. [показать]

Does Russia not see the gathering clouds of the new Cold War, or is there such another, much more complex and multifaceted party, in which we see only the very tip of the iceberg? [показать]

Judging by the hype that has risen after the first reports of the transfer of Russian troops in the southwestern part of the country, and especially the subsequent statement of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, most likely there is a second. To put it figuratively, Russia and the United States are approaching a repeat of the Caribbean crisis. [показать]

Who forgot or because of the gap in education does not even know initially, we note that the matter then almost came to the direct exchange of strategic nuclear strikes. According to the Western version of events, because the Soviet leadership gained audacity and tried to place ballistic missiles in Cuba. In fact, Moscow has only responded to the deployment of more than 3,000 nuclear weapons by the Americans in Europe and Turkey, from air bombs to cruise and ballistic missiles. [показать]

Attempts by the Soviet leadership to point out the unfriendlyness of such actions, especially against the background of obvious international warming and the expansion of Soviet-American relations at the highest level, were unsuccessful. The U.S. side stressed its right to decide for itself what to do "on its own territory," which included NATO allies in Europe. [показать]

Without understanding and goodwill, the Soviet Union also decided to organize its own base for disarming a dagger strike by deploying a group of operational and tactical missiles on the island of Cuba. [показать]

That's when the Americans really got through it. It is one thing to threaten the Russians from some Europe, which is not sorry, and quite another to see with their own eyes The Russian warheads almost behind the outskirts, realizing that .. if the Russians decide to put these trump cards on the table, America will have absolutely nothing to cover them.  [показать]

But it's all tactical particular. Strategically, the situation was because one of the parties, namely the U.S. leadership, decided that it could be safe enough for itself to radically "raise the stakes" by gaining, thanks to a combination of audacity with unceremoniousness, a tangible strategic superiority over the "Soviets", which would further serve as a convenient irresistible argument for renegotiating the balance of Soviet-American relations "in a more favorable" side for the United States. And it will turn out because the Russians will not dare to have a similar audacity. In any case, according to the prevailing ideas of the ruling elite in Washington. [показать]

So now we find ourselves in a similar situation. In the view of the American establishment, the disintegration of the Soviet Union means American victory in the Cold War. On this occasion, the overseas even established a medal, which was awarded to many persons, including Mikhail Gorbachev. [показать]

Since then, not only in the American elite, but in the entire Western society it has become accepted to consider Russia only a fragment of the former empire, existing solely because of the presence of large oil and gas reserves, but, as Barack Obama solemnly declared in 2015, with a torn in tatters economy. [показать]

Translated into understandable Russian, they say, Russia no one and call it no way. The White House is forced to reckon with it only because of Moscow's powerful nuclear weapons, the deterrent of which cannot yet be ignored. But since the Russians no longer want to accept the role of the youngest, disenfranchised and wordless, "partner" whose duty should be the full and resigned execution of "what people from across the ocean say," America's ruling elite has been outraged. [показать]

Can you imagine the closet talking?! The servant demanded rights, and even equals with the masters of the world. And who, well, China, he has a lot of money and the Chinese themselves almost one and a half billion, because no, some funny Russians. [показать]

The case was compounded by the fact that, according to the analytical institutes of America, the United States has come up with a way to win the global confrontation without going to the exchange of strategic nuclear strikes. Tactical doesn't count, Europe is not sorry. [показать]

It is generally believed that the technology of destabilizing the state through the creation of internal civil protests and bringing them to the level of armed confrontation of civil war, the West successfully worked in the Middle East, overturning Egypt, Syria, Libya. But if we look closely, you can see that the first success was achieved during the "carnation revolution" in Portugal in 1974. [показать]

The Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia in 1989 was also the result of a similar technique. Like Yugoslavia 1991 and Georgia 2003 - 2004. There were also attempts at the purple revolution in Iraq and the tulip revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. The "Vasilkov Revolution" was launched in Belarus in March 2006. [показать]

One bad thing. While in the Middle East and the western side of Eastern Europe the technology worked quite successfully, with Russia in 2012 the project fell. It was expected that Moscow would be drawn into the war in Ukraine as a result of the Maidan in 2014, but the calculations were not justified. Because of what the Pentagon had to come up with a military addition "color scheme." Under the working name "space of war." [показать]

Conventionally speaking, in the days of the Second World War and then, until the early 90s inclusive, a serious war between the "big systems" assumed the obligatory presence of millions of military groups. For example, in 1972, during a large NATO command and staff exercise that simulated a "global war in Europe" on the side of the Blues, more than 3.3 million soldiers and officers, 9,000 tanks, 28,000 light armored vehicles, 11,500 barrel artillery were involved. The forces of the conventional "red" seemed about the same. [показать]

At present, for all the statements about the enormous military power of NATO countries, in reality the Alliance is able to put on the battlefield from force 600,000 bayonets, of which 250-270,000 can be provided by the Pentagon. Theoretically, if the universal conscription laws, which are in place in Western countries, including the United States, are in place, although not used, the size of the army can be increased to a million, but the level of its real combat capability will not justify even the cost of uniforms and weapons. This very situation, when not to do, is obviously better than to try to do something. [показать]

For the traditional "linear" war of these forces is definitely not enough. Even taking into account the fact that the number of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is only 900,000 in combat units. But if the space the size of the Baltics to the Black Sea vertically and from the Belarusian-Russian to the Polish-German border and all the Balkans with the technology of "civil war" to set fire to, and be able to draw into the events of the armed forces of Russia, they on this huge area will literally get lost. Especially if they are forced to strictly post-factual response to numerous point armed conflicts, to which the NATO army will consider itself ready to a much higher extent than the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. [показать]

Although the above looks wild, in reality there is a rational grain in this scheme. Think about whether Moscow should immediately bomb Washington in case the Belarusian army, somewhere in the Kobrin area, defeats the Polish Army, which invaded Belarus? And if the Russian amphibious battalion, which was urgently transferred to the aid, suffers heavy losses from the Poles somewhere near Slutsky? [показать]

Repeated by the Pentagon and research corporations such as the RAND, NATO's training exercise has shown that, for example, in the case of a great war in the Baltics, no more than 6-8 tank and mechanized brigades will be involved on both sides. According to the statute, the width of the brigade's front is from 6 to 10 km in defense and up to 3 km in the offensive. [показать]

Consequently, 4 brigades are able to defend no more than 40 km, while the length of estonia and Latvia's borders with Russia (which can be taken for the original line of contact of troops) exceeds 450 km. This directly proves that even in ideal simulated conditions, the battles will be very distributed in space and time point. [показать]

In part because if you gather too much force in one place, they will immediately be subjected to a massive missile and bomb attack with a high level of losses for the target, especially in technology. On the other hand, if you don't... by the middle of the third day of fighting, the Russians are steadily "taking" the Polish city of Suvalka. [показать]

Here you can argue, they take after the march through Tartu, Riga, Shaulai and Kaunas, or they are a little helped by the "Kalingrad group of forces and means", the main thing is not that. The war from the very beginning is seen as high-low and very strongly pointy on tactical tasks. That, at least in theory, opens the possibility of creating conditions for maximum dispersal of forces and means on the vast space of warfare. [показать]

That's what the Pentagon generals are betting on. On confidence in the superiority of Western armies in intelligence, controllability, interaction of troop formations, and the pace of maneuvering by forces and means. It is believed that it is even harmful to collect a million soldiers "in one line" at once. It is possible to cause an inadequately harsh reaction of the opposing party. And here it is desirable to implement a process similar to a frog in a pot with slow-heated water. [показать]

All of the above is not theoretical in general. This is the scheme that the NATO army has been working on in the framework of exercises codenamed Defender Europe as early as 2018. [показать]

The only difference is that by 2020, the northern part of Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, the Baltics and Poland, was considered a zone for the "war games". The main task is to deal with the logistical traversal of this space for large masses of personnel and equipment, as well as the corresponding volumes of logistics supply. [показать]

This year, 2021, "Defender of Europe" will be held in the Balkans and in the Black Sea region. The United States intends to move 20,000 of its troops by air and sea (via Greece and the ports in the Adriatic) to the Balkans to Croatia (Slun polygon), Bosnia and Herzegovina (The Maniac's Polygon) and Northern Macedonia (Krivolak polygon). [показать]

Part of the training is also planned in Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania. Air defense and surface-to-surface missile exercises will be held in Bulgaria and Romania. Much of the manoeuvres of supply units will take place in Hungary, which will serve as a deep rear of the unfolding "war". [показать]

To participate in the military game, the Pentagon allocates units from the 1st Cavalry and 82nd Airborne Divisions, as well as a 53rd Infantry Brigade from troops stationed in the United States. Plus, it is supposed to use parts of the U.S. Army, located in Europe. The European Allies will attract another 11,000 personnel to the exercises. [показать]

The second difference, in addition to the general geography, is the "Ukraine factor." The north-west direction of Russian waxes is closed quite reliably, and the prospect of a "civil war" in the Baltics is extremely unlikely. At least in the current circumstances. Whereas in the Black Sea there is Ukraine, where the civil war is now in its seventh year. [показать]

That is, the formal basic conditions for launching the "space of war" scheme there have now been created. It is enough to organize some local, but loud provocation, preferably in front of TV cameras and with blood, as the process can be run. What is missing is the NATO army grouping, which is now preparing to be transferred under the legend of the large exercises Defender Europe 2021. [показать]

The U.S. goal in what is happening is quite simple - to include Ukraine in the "space of war" without its admission to the North Atlantic Alliance. This can only be done in a clear order. Putting Russia before the fact, which seems to be in Washington, Moscow will not react harshly. [показать]

In this case, Washington and Brussels will be able to "finally hear Kiev's calls for help" and come to the rescue by direct entry of the Bloc's troops under the slogan of allegedly protecting Ukraine from the threat of possible Russian occupation. Then you can implement the "Yugoslav scenario" when the troops of the Western Alliance did not see the civil war and ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia. And if Russia does not move tanks after that, it will be possible to organize direct invasion of Western troops in the LDNR. [показать]

In the context of the conversation between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, Vladislav Shurygin wrote well about it:

"My source in Kiev today threw an inf about a "Biden plan" on Ukraine, which was voiced at the meeting of Blinken and Kuleba. From that meeting, Kuleba came out on the wings and said, "I am very satisfied with the meeting with Tony Blinken and our conversation. We quietly discussed all our key issues on the agenda for an hour. <.. If you remember, after the first phone conversation with him, I wrote that a new day will begin in relations between Ukraine and America. Today I can confidently say that the day has started, and we are already living it confidently" [показать]

The essence of this plan consists of two points: [показать]

1. Ukraine has fast-track legislation allowing the deployment of NATO and US military bases on its territory. [показать]

2. The U.S. concludes a treaty with the leadership of Ukraine on the deployment of bases here, and unilaterally deploys three of its bases in Ukraine. One sea and two overland. All three will be upgraded to all types of U.S. aircraft, including heavy transport. [показать]

This, according to the Americans, will block the Russian plan of a large-scale military operation against Ukraine, in case of any aggravation of the situation in the Donbass. Under the guise of these bases, or rather the American military presence, Kiev will be able, without fear of Russia's response, to carry out a phased clean-up of Donbass. [показать]

According to the source, within the framework of this plan, Biden's initiative to meet with Putin and hold a summit was announced. The procedure of preparing for the meeting and discussing the agenda will allow the Russians to gain time to prepare the adoption of the law, conclude a treaty and deploy American troops. [показать]

In fact, the Russians should be led for six months by the nose, which is necessary for the preparation and implementation of the American plan." [показать]

Moscow understands this scenario and does not want to allow it. That is why, as Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in his speech, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, as part of the annual check of combat readiness and the results of the winter period of planned study, conducted a check of the relocation to the southwestern border of the Russian Federation of two general-arms armies and three airborne troops. [показать]

Translated into Russian, this means that we do not want war, but if we have to, we are ready for it. According to the experience of the West-2019 and Caucasus 2020 exercises, already on the tenth day of active operation at any point of contact, the Russian army is able to have superiority over NATO 7 to 1, on infantry fighting vehicles - 5 to 1, on attack helicopters - 5 to 1, on barrel artillery - 4 to 1, on jet systems - 16 to 1, on short-range air defense - 24 to 1, on long-range air defense - 17 to 1 , on tactical and operational-tactical missiles - the superiority of the Russian Federation will be absolute. In terms of the pace of the build-up, we are resolutely superior to all NATO armies, including the United States, so it is not possible to hope that we will be outplayed "in the space of war" or, as they say in the Pentagon, as part of a "multimodal operation". [показать]

And if America does start such a party, it may even turn out that all this "space of war" will eventually be under full Russian control. Regardless of all the borders of NATO, the EU or any other, absolutely conditional, formations. It will be expensive for everyone, but don't forget that Russia is also fully ready to move to strategic nuclear trump cards. As the Russian president said, "If anything, we will go to Paradise, and they will just die. [показать]"

That's how it turns out that literally right now comes approaching the second Caribbean crisis. Whether it will take place or not depends on whether the Russian resolve in the Pentagon, the White House and Brussels is believed. Last time, though literally on the brink of a big war, they believed. We'll see how it will turn out this time. Defender Europe 2021 is scheduled for the end of May. [показать]

That's why Biden called for the second time in Moscow, that insulting the Russian president, tried to sharply raise the stakes, but came out a complete bummer, and to cover the Russian "polite" arguments to America is nothing, so they again and began to delay the time under the guise of new peace initiatives. Standard hockey practice of North Americans. [показать]

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