The growth of defense spending is increasingly reflected in the fact that the world's largest states are talking about the readiness for a large-scale conflict. Recently, his opinion on this subject was expressed by the assistant professor of Moscow State University Alexey Fenenko. The expert gave an interview to the publication "Komsomolskaya Pravda". In it, he told about the main reasons that can provoke the outbreak of war. In addition, Fenenko also reports that "war-punishment" can be used against Russia. This model of conflict has already been used by the United States against other countries.
"The great powers once again had political reasons for the outbreak of direct war, the current world order is not strong: they are not satisfied with all the major players - the US, Russia and China. The ideological confrontation has become much tougher, because we are building relations in the global world, and, therefore, two projects of its construction are competing: the American project of globalization or the unipolar world and the Russian-Chinese project of a multipolar world, that is, the order of the "balance of power". Now we are touching the vital, not the ideological, interests of each other.
This is accompanied by an increase in technical capabilities for direct US ground war with their rivals in Eurasia. Over the past 30 years, the means of delivering a precision strike have stepped forward, various regional missile defense and air defense systems, landing units and rapid reaction forces are capable of launching battles far from each other's main territories. The US land war with Russia and China is gradually becoming technically more feasible than the Soviet-American war in the 1960s. Hence, it can become a serious temptation for politicians.
Since the early 1990s, Americans have tried a model of "war-punishment" of a certain regime. Its technology is the destruction of the enemy's economic and military infrastructure to force it to surrender, that is, the acceptance of American conditions.Surrender, as Iraq's 1991 experience has shown, presupposes forcible liquidation of WMD under "international control" and the loss of the losing part of sovereignty in the form of "no-fly zones".In the future, conditions can be created for regime change in a dangerous country (as in Yugoslavia) or forcible liquidation (as in Iraq and Libya).
In the mid-2000s, the White House wondered if a "war-punishment" model could be applied to Russia and China. For this, it is not necessary to strike rocket-bomb strikes on them. It suffices to inflict defeat on them in the regional conflict. And then you can start an information campaign about the "rotten regime" and its "shameful defeat." The administration of Barack Obama has developed a new version of such a conflict. It is a question of inciting against Russia and China regional powers - partners or allies of the United States. Such powers should have historical claims to Moscow and Beijing, which have relatively large military potentials. Theoretically, such states can act for Russia, for example, Sweden, Germany, Turkey (an attempt to push us we have seen two years ago); for China - Japan or Vietnam. Their actions can be supplemented by the formation of a broad anti-Russian or anti-Chinese coalition, the threat of economic sanctions, the supply of weapons, "Fenenko said.
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