Часть1

http://www.japersrink.com/2013/2/1/3938090/alex-ovechkin-even-strength-goals

For the first time since February, 2007, Alex Ovechkin has gone ten NHL games without scoring an even-strength goal. To put that in perspective, over his career Ovechkin has averaged just over four even-strength goals per ten games (a number which drops to a bit over three over his past two relatively - emphasis on relatively - goal-starved seasons).

And while the current drought makes for an eye-catching stat, it's indicative of the even-strength threat that Ovechkin is right now. Beginning in 2007-08, Ovechkin's even-strength goal production has dropped from 43 to 36 and 37 over the next two seasons to 25 over each of the past two (which, it's worth noting, is still good for fifth in the League over the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons). His even-strength assists have fallen off somewhat similarly, and he's gone from 3.00 points-per-60-minutes at five-on-five to 3.70 in the team's amazing 2009-10 season to 1.77 last year and just 0.58 so far in the still-young 2013 campaign.

To be sure, part of that is on the team (though obviously there are chickens and eggs to consider), one which has gone from run-and-gun to run-and-hide to... well, we'll wait and see. Here's a look at the Caps' shots-for and shots-against per sixty minutes of ice time over the last five-plus seasons (via Behind the Net, of course):

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They've gone from dominant to dominated, with the jury obviously very much out on this season. But at least they're better at even-strength with Ovechkin on the ice, right? Not quite as much as they used to be. Here's what the Caps' five-on-five shots-for differential has looked like over that same span when Ovechkin has been on the ice (red) and off (blue):

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Oh, hey Jay Beagle and Joey Crabb as linemates. Basically, the Caps used to be much better with AO on the ice than when he was off, but that gap narrowed last year and has reversed this year (but take this for what it's worth, not only on sample size, but in terms of the context it lacks, including linemates, zone starts, competition, etc.).

All of that is the "what," and what might be even more troubling is the "why."

To say that opponents have the book on Ovechkin might overstate his repertoire; instead, it may be that opponents have the page on Ovechkin:

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Look familiar? That (via Hockey Plays and Strategies) was a huge part of Ovechkin's road map to NHL superstardom, delivering highlights (like this one in the playoffs against the Rangers or this one against the Sabres) that Caps fans remember as if they'd just happened last night.

Except they didn't just happen last night. And they haven't really been happening regularly for a while now. Here are Ovechkin's 2011-12 regular season goals - count how many are scored on wide-lane drives:

First off... dude can still fill a net. Also, awesome highlight reels are awesome.

But while there are some instances there where Ovechkin vs. The World worked (and no doubt more where it worked and resulted in an assist or just a high-quality chance), that's just not how he scores any more... if it ever really was. And yet, we've seen - literally for years - Ovechkin's over-reliance on carrying the puck himself rather than taking full advantage of his teammates (Internet hilarity aside). So while Adam Oates's best intentions to turn Ovechkin into a more "north-south" player by playing him with grinders, the result is likely just reinforcing his top sniper's worst habit - a stubborn refusal to pass the puck to less-skilled linemates... because they're all less-skilled linemates when you're Alex Ovechkin. Oates should give Ovechkin a playmaking center, stat (our long-stated preference is Mike Ribeiro), on the condition that Ovechkin actually uses him. Otherwise, why bother? It's not quite as simple as "give him better linemates," though that's certainly a start.

If there's a bottom line here, it's that Ovechkin needs to spend less time with the puck and more time doing things without it - moving to soft spots in zones, driving to the net for rebounds, and so on. If anyone can turn Alex Ovechkin into Brett Hull, it's Adam Oates. Actually, if anyone can turn Alex Ovechkin into Brett Hull, it's Alex Ovechkin.



Часть2

http://www.japersrink.com/2013/3/18/4115968/alex-o...d-even-strength-shot-selection

Alex Ovechkin scored his first even-strength goal of the season back on February 9. It took him a dozen games to light the lamp at five-aside, and in the midst of that stretch, we lamented that "Ovechkin needs to spend less time with the puck and more time doing things without it - moving to soft spots in zones, driving to the net for rebounds, and so on."

We're now twenty-eight games into the season and Ovechkin has but four even-strength tallies, with the fourth coming last night. Four. The shots are there (he's comfortably in the top-ten in five-on-five shots on goal), but the goals just aren't.
Playing to Alex Ovechkin's Even Strengths
A look at Alex Ovechkin's even-strength productivity... and what can be done to increase it.

Or perhaps the shots aren't there after all.

Ovechkin has always been a volume shooter - in his big years, he scored a ton of goals because he pumped a ton of rubber at the net, an underrated skill in and of itself. Was he a markedly better finisher in those years than he is now? Doubtful. But over the past two seasons (through Saturday's game), Ovechkin has averaged just 2.4 even-strength shots on goal per game, down from 2.9 for the previous two seasons, which was down from 3.4 over the two campaigns before that. That's nearly a 30% drop, and the goals, unsurprisingly, have disappeared along with the shots. (As to the reasons for the drop, some of that is covered in the post linked to in the sidebar.)

That only explains part of the drop in even-strength production, though,as his even-strength shooting percentage has also fallen, from 13% to 12.9% to 9.3% over the three spans, including just 5.6% this year (through Sunday). Part of that is luck or randomness or whatever word you want to assign to the stuff that's out of the shooter's control - a few bounces or misplays by opposing goalies and that 5.6% is something more inline with his career averages. But Ovechkin's even-strength shot selection seems to have worsened as well (no doubt a chicken-or-the-egg effect alongside his team's decline in offensive production and multiple system changes).

Via theninjagreg's brilliant "Super Shot Search" tool, take a look at Ovechkin's even-strength shots over the three seasons leading up to this year, keeping in mind that scoring chances are generally defined as shots taken from the "'home-plate shaped area' that goes from the top of the faceoff circles, through the faceoff dots, then angled to the goal posts" (and click on any of the images in this post to enlarge them):

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And here's 2013 (through Saturday... let your imagination add one red dot around the top of the faceoff circle for last night's tally):

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Ovechkin simply isn't taking (or getting) as many shots from dangerous areas as he used to, whether he's been centered by Nicklas Backstrom or Mike Ribeiro (lookin' good with Jay Beagle, though!). (This season's small sample size should be noted, as should the fact that not all shots are included in these charts... though there's no reason to think that the ones that are included aren't representative).

As points of comparison, let's take a look at a couple of other big-bodied shooters, Corey Perry and James Neal (and by all means, pick your own comparables and give the Shot Search a spin and draw your own conclusions). First, Perry's last three years:

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And Neal's last two:

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With the 2013 season quickly looking like one that will provide the Caps with ample opportunities to work on specific aspects of their game the rest of the way without having to worry about, y'know, winning, high on the list of priorities has to be figuring out how to get Ovechkin more scoring chances, whether he's carrying the puck or letting someone else do it - it could be a big part of the difference between a successful 2013-14 and another season like this one, both for the player and the team.