Gas power of Russia and its objective advantages can be implemented to the full if the country has time to take the place on dynamically developed liquefied natural gas market.

The last two decades liquefied natural gas trade the most dynamically develops in the world market of hydrocarbons. Annually its turns increase by some percent and according to forecast estimations such a tendency remains invariable till 2030, when the world trade volumes of liquefied natural gas should grow approximately in three-four times in comparison with the present. Last years appeal of liquefied natural gas market, which history totals already almost half of a century, leads to occurrence of new players on it.

The most vivid example is Qatar. The small country possessing the third stocks on size of natural gas in the world, till 1997 did not produce and did not sell liquefied natural gas, and in 2006 the emirate already took the first place in the planet on volumes of manufacture and sale of liquefied natural gas. Now the companies of this country RasGas and Qatargas in partnership with Total, ExxonMobil, Mitsui, Marubeni, ConocoPhillips and Shell produce and send for export 35-40 million tons of liquefied natural gas, but by 2011 plan to increase these indicators twice. The authorities of this country build the world's largest gas tanker and actively search for new commodity markets. Except Qatar it is possible to name some more countries, which in the 90th years and the next decade were connected to sale of liquefied natural gas.

At the same time the list to the last time lacks the largest two gas powers: Russia and Iran. The reasons of their nonparticipation in liquefied natural gas trade are various. In the 50th years of the last century in the USSR there were technologies on gas liquation, but building of system of the main gas pipelines was staked due to the number of objective reasons.

Iran late enough started to develop the gas industry and as the USSR first aspired to satisfy internal requirements. Besides, the sanctions of the USA against Iran broke attraction of foreign investments and modern technologies in the country, including the technologies on gas liquation.

The further development of gas branch of Russia and the tendency in the world market of hydrocarbons have led to occurrence of the conditions objectively promoting active inclusion of the country in liquefied natural gas trade.

Active work on development of the sea shelf began in Russia since the new millennium. This direction is considered as one of the most perspective, taking into account huge hydrocarbon stocks of Arctic Ocean. Initial taken total resources of gas of the Russian part of shelf of Barents and Pechora seas make accordingly 29.7 and 2.3 billion м3. The stocks of one only Shtokmanovsky gas-condensate deposit are estimated in 3.2 billion м3 of gas and 31 million tons of condensate. Actually it is a question of formation of new powerful resource base of the Russian gas industry.

However inevitably there is a question on transportation of this gas to foreign consumers. One of the variants is creation of capacities on liquefied natural gas manufacture. Within the limits of the Shtokmanovsky project in 2014 in Murmansk area it is planned to start the first turn of factory on gas liquation. Further development of the shelf both northern seas and Sea of Okhotsk, will give a push to creation of the new enterprises of similar class.

Besides, as gas is liquefied by its cooling, climatic conditions of the Russian North appear optimum for decrease in power inputs and the cost price on liquefied natural gas manufacture. According to Gazprom, comparison of power inputs in Oman, Egypt, Norway, Russia (Murmansk) shows possibility of annual economy in comparison with Norway on 3 %, with Egypt - on 8 %, with Oman - on 15%.
From the point of view of national interests, liquefied natural gas trade also has a number of benefits. It will make necessary creation of new capacities on gas liquation and condensate processing, so the matter is about increase of depth of repartition. As a result the number of workplaces and taxable base grows, as well as investments into development of high technologies increase.

It is supposed, that the export direction will stimulate development of domestic shipbuilding. According to the number of experts, the Russian shipbuilders cannot already make a worthy competition at the world level, except for manufacture of gas tankers, the requirement in which will increase in parallel with liquefied natural gas market growth.

As to the external economic component export of liquefied natural gas allows to leave for geographical barriers, which is inevitable at trade in network gas. The territory of Russia, its exit to three oceans, an arrangement of gas-condensate deposits does our country a very favorable supplier in respect of logistics for the states of East and Southern Asia, Northern and the South America.
Taking into account these factors Gazprom's Board in 2007 approved strategy in the field of manufacture and deliveries of liquefied natural gas. It provides to take the lead positions in the world segment of liquefied natural gas with finishing in the long term (by 2030) Gazprom's shares to 20-25 % of world production, or 70-90 million tons per year. The raw-material base for deliveries of liquefied natural gas in the countries of the Atlantic pool (the most perspective market with the greatest deficiency of liquefied natural gas - 52 %) become the Arctic shelf; for East Asia where there are the largest importers of liquefied natural gas Japan and South Korea - the shelf of Sakhalin and Sea of Okhotsk.

The strategy also provides realization of some projects on gas liquation in the territory of the other states. Now active negotiations on this question are carried on with Iran, Algeria, and Libya. It is studied a possibility to organize a joint liquefied natural gas project in the territory of Venezuela.

However on the way to realization of this strategy Russia inevitably faces influence of two factors, which can bring essential updating in the planned projects.

The first factor is global - a competition in liquefied natural gas market. The second one is possible influence of the present crisis both on liquefied natural gas market and on investment possibilities of Russia on development of liquefied natural gas infrastructure.
So, up to the last time in the world rough rates grew capacities on manufacture and reception of liquefied natural gas as well as the means of its delivery (the number of gas tankers from 1998 till 2006 increased twice). An additional factor promoting such rapid development was the tendency to constant decrease in expenses for manufacture and delivery of liquefied natural gas. According to Gazprom in 2008 there were 34 projects of new capacities on gas liquation at a different stage in the world in the volume about 155 million tons and 74 projects of reception terminals. By estimates of the company Pace Global, capacities on liquation following the results of 2008 increased by 21 %, in 2009 their increase is planned by17 %, in 2010 - by 18 % more. As to consumption, under the forecasts of Department of Power of the USA by 2015 import of liquefied natural gas to this country will grow in two-three times in comparison with the level of 2007 (nearby 20 billion м3).
At the same time there is information on possible decrease in consumption of liquefied natural gas. So, Japan, the world's largest importer of liquefied natural gas, has already lowered the forecast on demand for the next year. This tendency to some extent concerned also other Asian countries-buyers of liquefied natural gas. For example, many enterprises of Indian power refuse from liquefied natural gas in favor of liquid fuel, which now became cheaper in one and a half time. The USA in 2008 lowered twice import of liquefied natural gas in comparison with previous year. It became one of the reasons of Qatar's postponing the terms of input of additional capacities on gas liquation.
So, two tendencies are visible: on the one hand, rather optimistic forecasts for future of liquefied natural gas market, on the other - real decrease in its consumption in the world. But hardly there is a contradiction here. The majority of experts are simple see in reduction of demand purely tactical phenomenon, which does not cancel the tendency to increase of role of liquefied natural gas in the world export of gas, caused by power policy of the majority of the states to increase a share of gas in fuel balance as more effective and ecologically pure fuel.
In a word, if the industry and power sector in the world grows despite all crises (and there are no reasons to doubt) the gas market will inevitable grow as the market of the most effective fuel, and, first of all, trade of liquefied natural gas will grow.
Perhaps, it is possible to agree with opinion of a representative of ConocoPhillips Gerard Shupperta: «Of course the crisis can fail to affect the gas world market. However the basic question now consists in, whether manufacturers in case of need can essentially raise manufacture volumes to avoid crisis of deliveries».

The answer to this question is more likely positive, especially taking into account connection of Russia to liquefied natural gas trade. Now our country occupied approximately 5 % of the market thanks to setting in operation of a factory on Sakhalin. The share is small but it also gives advantage. First, if Russia by present time were the active player in the liquefied natural gas market it would face a rigid competition that in the unprofitable image would affect the price of liquefied gas. The present crisis would only strengthen this negative tendency.
Secondly, Russia has not yet exhausted potential of network gas deliveries. Peak of export of gas to Europe is still ahead. Obviously, it will come approximately in ten years when Southern and Northern streams are constructed, Shtokmanovsky and Bovanenkovsky deposits will reach planned volumes of extraction and gas consumption in Europe will grow approximately on 200 billion м3. It is also impossible to forget about projects on export of network gas to east direction.

Thirdly, Z. Shuppert says if trade of liquefied natural gas grows predicted rates the resources of gas and capacities of its present manufacturers can and not suffice about. The representatives of the same Qatar, who set before themselves arrogant problems on escalating of manufacture of liquefied natural gas in short-term prospect, do not hasten to sign contracts on the new projects. It is connected with concern of the authorities of the emirate concerning the stocks on the largest gas condensate deposit North Field. Now there is an additional check of these stocks, but in any case the government of Qatar intends to treat the gas pantries more efficient. As besides manufacture of liquefied natural gas for export, a part of extracted gas is intended for the project "Dolphin" - the pipeline connecting gas networks of Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar with resource base North Field.

Other big exporter of liquefied natural gas is Indonesia, which is long time in the lead in this sector. However further increase in deliveries restrains limitation of stocks of gas (on volume they are comparable with one only our Shtokmanovsky deposit) and necessity to increase its delivery to home market.

There are some more states-exporters of liquefied natural gas, such as Australia (it finishes building of a new factory on liquefied natural gas manufacture with capacity similar Russian on Sakhalin), Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria. They plan to expand manufacture of liquefied natural gas however it is impossible to name these plans excessively arrogant. The problem consists in limitation of gas resources and gradual increase in the share of gas in the power balance of these states.

In this situation which, probably, will take place in 15-20 years, Russia can throw all gas power on a bowl of scales to close an arising gap between a supply and demand, having kept thus the price convenient for, becoming the guarantor of power safety in intercontinental scale.
In a word, it is not necessary to speed up the events, but it is impossible and to tighten, especially taking into account the Iranian factor. The Islamic republic also wishes to play a key role in the liquefied natural gas market. The considerable stocks of gas concentrated in the Iranian shelf give to this country quite good chances. As it was already marked, the deterrent was sanctions of the USA. The same Total, carrying on negotiations concerning Iranian project Pars LNG on liquefied natural gas manufacture in the country, does not hasten to conclude the contract on it.

And still Iran undertakes desperate attempts to break on at liquefied natural gas market as the independent player. Calculation is made, in particular, on development of cooperation with China, but interaction with the western partners is not also rejected. According to the minister of oil Golamhossejn Nozari the first factory on liquefied natural gas manufacture will start working in 2011.
If these plans are realized (there is no such confidence now), especially taking into account possible "reload" of relations with the USA, Iran will catch up with Russia. In this situation Gazprom conducts absolutely correct policy, making active joint projects with Teheran in oil and gas sphere, including liquefied natural gas manufacture. Thereby conditions for possible transformation of a competition in mutually advantageous partnership are created.

However the key to leadership of Russia in liquefied natural gas market is lying on the Russian shelf. It is supposed that by 2030 it will annually give from 180 billion м3 of gas. The main thing that the rates of its development, which has been put in pawn in the program of Gazprom, have been kept and synchronized with creation of capacities on liquefied natural gas manufacture within the limits of the strategy approved till 2030. If to look back at the crisis, which is a temporary phenomenon, there is a risk to lag behind the tendency, which has long-term prospect.