Liquefied Natural Gas
26-06-2009 09:10
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Becomes a basis for Gazprom exit on the new markets
Gazprom continues increasing gas export possibilities on the foreign markets, which are not traditional for it, though they are far not boundless. The basic prospects here are connected more with qualitative than with quantitative growth. Therefore the corporation connects further increase in export deliveries with new zones of presence, first of all with the North America and the countries of Asian-Pacific region. Liquefied natural gas becomes basis for an exit and fastening in these markets. Gazprom plans to increase manufacture of liquefied natural gas both in Russia and within the limits of foreign extraction projects.
Strong positions
Gazprom is the largest gas company: on the license sites of the corporation is concentrated about 70 % of the Russian and 19 % of the world reconnoitered stocks of blue fuel. On its share accounts for an order of 83 % of the total amount of extraction of natural gas in our country and 18 % of the total amount of extraction of natural gas in the world. Gazprom dominates in the gas market of Russia, which remains the second for a consumption level after the USA and also in the markets of many countries of the former Soviet Union. Simultaneously the corporation provides deliveries of 27.5 % of the gas imported by the European states. We will remind that in 2008 the total amount of realization of blue fuel of Gazprom made 573.1 billion cubic meters (in 2007 - 572 billion), including 292.2 billion (307 billion), which accounts for Russia, 96.5 billion (as well as last year) - on the countries of the former USSR and 184,4 billion (168,5 billion) - on the Far abroad states.
By present time traditional commodity markets of gas of the company have been already generated and shared between the suppliers. "We take on them strong enough positions and we have serious shares", the head of department of development of business in the new markets of the company "Gazprom Export", Marina Surzhenko states, "Therefore concerning these markets there is a sense to speak about potential not so much quantitative, but qualitative growth - about an exit on the end user and development of adjacent directions of business". The energy scarce countries in a traditional zone of Gazprom's activity, certainly, will further increase volumes of import of raw materials. So, under the forecast of International power agency IEA, by the end of 2020 gas consumption in Europe and Turkey will increase with present 566 billion cubic meters at least to 600 billion, from which an order of 100 billion will be covered at the expense of liquefied natural gas import, and 500 billion - from network (pipeline) gas. From this volume 240-280 billion cubic meters should arrive from Russia, the Asian sources and the North Africa, which today give totally nearby 175 billion raw materials. Because of reduction of own extraction in Europe the share of the Russian blue fuel in this market can grow by 2020 to 33-35 %.
As to the new commodity markets here we are talking about quantitative growth. "We are talking about share formation of Gazprom in the regions, where our company practically has not been presented until recently", Marina Surzhenko tells. First of all, it is the countries of Asian-Pacific region and the North America.
New regions
The greatest interest for Gazprom represents the Asian market combining big developed demand and potential of growth. First of all it is Japan, which is the world's largest buyer of liquefied natural gas. Since 1997 requirement of this country in blue fuel increased approximately by 45 % and purchases of liquefied natural gas exceeded in 2008 90 billion cubic meters. Not smaller attention of the corporation draw South Korea, which consumption grew for the same period more than twice and deliveries of liquefied natural gas in this country exceeded last year 35 billion cubic meters. China also represents special interest for Gazprom: its requirements for blue fuel increased for last decade almost four times. While the Peoples Republic of China tries to satisfy demand for gas at the expense of own extraction, which volume was possible to increase from hardly more than 20 billion cubic meters in 1997 to 70 billion. Nevertheless China is compelled to import gas, though the level of these purchases is not too great. So, in 2007 the republic bought 3.87 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas in Australia, Algeria, Nigeria and Oman. However, this indicator is steadily grows, for example, in 2008 it increased by 15 %. And at preservation of present rates of development the Peoples Republic of China by 2020 will annually consume 200-250 billion cubic meters of natural gas at least which two thirds should be imported to the country. Indicators of growth of economy similar to China are observed in India. Here demand for gas for last ten years increased not so considerably - from 22 to more than 40 billion cubic meters, though such dynamics is caused more likely by absence of the offer, after all own stocks of blue fuel in India rather modest and are heavy in working out. The country is compelled to do the rate for import: today India provides a quarter of consumption at the expense of import deliveries, and their share steadily grows. So, if in 2007 country got nearby 10 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas for last year this indicator increased in 8.1 %. Naturally, the potential of growth of the Indian gas market is considered in Gazprom not less perspective than Chinese. However the Indian market is too remote from our country, and accordingly, it will be uneasy for the corporation to compete on it with the other manufacturers of blue fuel, say, from the region of Persian Gulf.
The North America, first of all the United States, involves Gazprom for other reason. It is hardly possible to name the market of the USA fast-growing. It is generated for a long time, and gas consumption here did not exceed last eight years the level of 660.7 billion cubic meters, reached in 2000. An order of 16-20 % of demand the country is compelled to satisfy at the expense of import of network gas from Canada and Mexico, as well as liquefied natural gas from Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, Qatar and Equatorial Guinea. Despite it, the United States act as exporters of gas, sending serious enough volumes on pipelines to Canada and Mexico, and also on the sea to Japan. «Now the USA is the unique liquid gas market. For a supplier it means that, as well as in any other market, there is a risk of the price, but actually there is no risk of volumes, - tells Marina Surzhenko. - Here it is always possible both to sell blue fuel and to get it. The question will be only in the price».
Thanks to this advantage before other markets the United States play a special role in the strategy of an exit of Gazprom on new commodity markets of gas.
Accent on the American market
The Russian gas will get to the North America this year. We will remind that in 2007 Gazprom entered into the project "Sakhalin-2" as the basic shareholder. And in February, 2009 took place putting into operation of the first in Russia factory on liquefied natural gas manufacture by general capacity 9.6 million tons (two lines with productivity of 4.8 million tons everyone). There was just within the limits of the project "Sakhalin-2". Deliveries of Russian liquefied natural gas to the buyers started at the end of March and the enterprise exit on full capacity is planned for 2010. About 65 % of the Sakhalin liquefied gas will go to the Japanese consumers, the other volumes - to South Korea and the North America. All production of the factory was contracted based on long-term contracts period of validity 20 and more years even before termination of its building. And in early April of current year it was declared about signing of contracts on liquefied natural and network gas purchase and sale between Gazprom and Royal Dutch Shell.
According to Marina Surzhenko this transaction is considered not only as Gazprom positioning in the North American market and preparation for arrival of large volumes of Russian liquefied natural gas in the USA in intermediate term and long-term prospect. But simultaneously as working off of the business model, which have been included into the strategy of development of liquefied natural gas direction of the corporation, adopted in March, 2008. "It is quite probable that is far not all volumes will be put on this terminal. We have a possibility to re-direct the streams of liquefied natural gas", Marina Surzhenko says, "That is if there are no the best variants of liquefied gas realization, this 1 million tons will go to California. But if we see that Japan, South Korea, China or Europe are more interesting for us on price parameters, we, certainly, will send liquefied natural gas on these markets. And our trade missions will buy the volumes of gas necessary for maintenance of the obligations to the consumers in the USA in the territory of the North America".
The similar scheme is supposed to be used and within the limits of other Russian liquefied natural gas projects. For this reason the gas market of the United States is considered by Gazprom as basic. Having constant access to it and, accordingly, guarantees of realization of the planned volumes of gas, the corporation not only can start an active exit in new regions, where business is subject to the raised risk, but also considerably to strengthen the positions in the traditional markets. Especially it concerns the countries, deliveries in which of network gas are limited, for example Spain, Portugal and also the Great Britain. However, the large-scale exit of Gazprom on the new markets is planned during realization of new liquefied natural gas projects in the long term after 2014.
Liquefied natural gas projects in Russia
Civil-engineering projects of gas pipelines for export of blue fuel on the new markets, such as the Peoples Republic of China and South Korea, still remain actual for Gazprom, however while their time has not come yet. "First we should sell gas and only after that to build an infrastructure", Marina Surzhenko explains, "There is no sense to hasten with realization of these projects, till the Chinese and Korean markets are not ready to accept corresponding volumes of pipeline gas".
Therefore the corporation plans to start an exit on the new regions, to be fixed there and to provide possibility of the future large deliveries of gas, liquefied and network at the expense of stage-by-stage escalating of liquefied natural gas manufacture. Working out of the Shtokmanovsky deposit is considered now the basic project in this area. Within the limits of the first phase of the project will be constructed the factory on gas liquation by annual capacity of 7.5 million tons, which is supposed to be placed in operation in 2014. The second and the third phases are still studied, but already it is now clear that the basic part of gas extracted here will be liquefied. It is planned to realize it under the same scheme as Sakhalin liquefied natural gas. The capacities in regasification of the terminals are contracted in the target market, whence the Russian gas will be delivered on the USA market on a pipe, as well as in a case with Sakhalin liquefied natural gas, the part of the Shtokmanovsky gas can be directed on the other markets.
Gazprom considers prospects of realization and other projects on gas liquation in Russia. Among them is expansion of capacities on manufacture of liquefied natural gas in Sakhalin, building of new factories in Vladivostok and on peninsula Yamal. The company plans development of low-tonnage manufactures of liquefied natural gas - it can provide favorable export to the areas, where there is no pipeline infrastructure. The company already delivers small volumes of liquefied natural gas to the consumers in the Baltic States, in Poland and Finland.
"Till 2020 we expect an essential gain of capacities on liquefied natural gas manufacture in Russia", Marina Surzhenko specifies, "Detailed study of corresponding projects has been conducted, investment decisions on them will be made in process of preparation of the projects documentation". We will remind that Gazprom plans assume that annual manufacture of liquefied natural gas in Russia and its deliveries to the world markets will reach 90 million tons (nearby 117 billion cubic meters) to 2030.
Maintenance of possibilities
It is necessary for Gazprom to come to the new regions and to be fixed there for effective realization of so serious volumes of liquefied natural gas in world markets. To it will promote not only experience of sale of a part of the first Russian liquefied natural gas within the limits of the project "Sakhalin-2". Today it is clear that from the point of view of an exit on the end user of natural gas the markets of Japan and South Korea owing to the specificity still for a long time will not give to Gazprom such possibilities as the USA and Europe. At the same time the corporation connects big prospects with China and India.
By the way, not the last role in development of the new markets can play foreign extraction projects of Gazprom, first of all in Latin America, the North Africa and in the Near East. We will remind that besides the projects in Bolivia and Venezuela, Gazprom has extracting actives in Libya and Algeria, carries on negotiations for participation in development of the deposits of hydrocarbons in Nigeria. Gazprom Netherlands BV actively works over entering in the new extraction projects around Persian Gulf. Prospects of creation of capacities on gas liquation within the limits of these projects are studied in parallel. However, there is specificity here. «The problems of formation of these markets have in many respects something in common with what we faced in due time in Russia, - Marina Surzhenko considers. - Gas production growth conducts to increase in its consumption by the countries-manufacturers. As a result there is a dilemma - to develop first of all home market or to realize export strategy. If the state is also oil-extracting, pumping of gas in a layer for maintenance of oil production level can be considered as a variant». It is obvious that for Gazprom as well as for any other company entering in foreign extraction projects is necessary to reckon with these nuances. However, the corporation is not only going to participate in maintenance of internal requirements of the listed regions but also expects to receive by 2015 additional volumes of liquefied natural gas within the limits of foreign extraction projects.
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